Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore April 2015 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro April 2015

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1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br Podgorica Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Mr Milojica Dakić, guverner Dr Velibor Milošević, viceguverner Dr Nikola Fabris, viceguverner Asim Telaćević Dr Milivoje Radović Dr Milorad Jovović Dr Srđa Božović GRAFIČKO UREĐIVANJE: Odjeljenje za publikacije Podaci objavljeni u ovom Biltenu su preliminarni i moguće su korekcije nakon dobijanja konačnih podataka. Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Milojica Dakić, MSc, Governor Velibor Milošević, PhD, Vice-Governor Nikola Fabris, PhD, Vice-Governor Asim Telaćević Milivoje Radović, PhD Milorad Jovović, PhD Srđa Božović, PhD TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Translation Services Division Publications Division Data published in this Bulletin are preliminary and subject to revision as final data become available. Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKA KRETANJA 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 30 I Monetarna statistika 30 II Statistika kamatnih stopa 44 III Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 68 IV Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 84 V Platni promet 91 VI Realni sektor 97 VII Fiskalni sektor 102 VIII Metodologija 106 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 30 I Monetary Statistics 30 II Interest Rates Statistics 45 III Money Market and Capital Market 68 IV International Economic Relations 84 V Payment System Transactions 91 VI Real Sector Developments 97 VII Fiscal Developments 102 VIII Methodology 107 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Inflacija je izašla iz negativne zone. U porastu su industrijska proizvodnja, turizam i gradjevinarstvo, a opao je nivo aktivnosti u šumarstvu. Banke su visoko likvidne. U porastu su depoziti i aktiva banaka, a opao je nivo kreditne aktivnosti. Strane direktne investicije su u u porastu. Kretanje cijena Potrošačke cijene su u martu u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježile rast od 1,1%. Najveći rast cijena zabilježen je u kategoriji prevoz od 3,2%, najviše zbog rasta cijena goriva i maziva za 5,8%, kao i u kategoriji odjeća i obuća (3,2%), zbog rasta cijena odjeće za 3,4% i obuće za 2,9%. Rast cijena zabilježen je i u kategoriji hrana i bezalkoholna pića za 1,3%, najviše zbog povećanja cijena voća od 9,8%, povrća od 5,8% i mesa od 0,7%. U kategorijama alkoholna pića i duvan i zdravlje zabilježen je rast od po 0,6%, u kategorijama pokućstvo i rutinsko održavanje stana i ostali proizvodi i usluge rast od po 0,4%, a u kategoriji rekreacija i kultura rast od 0,3%. Pad cijena zabilježen je u kategoriji hoteli i restorani od 0,2%. Cijene su ostale nepromijenjene u kategorijama: stanovanje, voda, struja, gas i druga goriva, komunikacije i obrazovanje. Godišnja inflacija u martu 2015., mjerena potrošačkim cijenama iznosila je 1,6%, dok je inflacija mjerena harmonizovanim indeksom potrošačkih cijena iznosila 0,9%. Grafik br. 1 Potrošačke cijene Izvor: Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 8

9 Macroeconomic environment Inflation exited negative zone. Industrial output increased, as well a tourism and construction, while there was a decline in forestry. Banks were highly liquid. Deposits and assets increased while credit activity recorded a decline. Foreign direct investments showed an uptrend. Prices Consumer prices recorded monthly increase of 1.1% in March The highest increase was recorded in the category transportation (3.2%), mostly as a result of increased prices of fuel and lubricants by 5.8%, as well as in the category clothes and footwear (3.2%), as a result of increased prices of clothes by 3.4% and footwear by 2.9%. Products under the category food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded price increase (1.3%), mainly due to an increase in prices of fruit, vegetables and meat by 9.8%, 5.8% and 0.7%, respectively. There was an increase of 0.6% in the categories alcoholic beverages and tobacco, as well as in the category health. In the categories housing and routine maintenance and other products and services there was an increase of 0.4%, while the category recreation and culture recorded an increase of 0.3%. Decrease of prices was recorded in the category hotels and restaurants by 0.2%. Prices in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, transportation, communications and education remained unchanged. Annual CPI inflation in March 2015 amounted to 1.6%%, while HICP inflation amounted to 0.9%. Graph 1 - Consumer prices Source: Monstat 9 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda su u martu ostvarile rast od 0,1% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Rast cijena zabilježen je u sektoru prerađivačke industrije za 0,1%, dok su cijene u sektorima vađenje ruda i kamena i snabdijevanje električnom energijom, gasom i parom ostale nepromijenjene. Na godišnjem nivou, cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda su zabilježile rast od 0,5%. Rast cijena zabilježen je u sva tri sektora: u sektoru snabdijevanje električnom energijom, gasom i parom za 1,5%, u sektoru vađenje ruda i kamena za 0,3% i u sektoru prerađivačka industrija za 0,1%. Grafik br. 2 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja je u martu 2015., zabilježila rast od 5,3% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Rast proizvodnje zabilježen je u sektoru prerađivačka industrija za 15,6% i u sektoru vađenja ruda i kamena za 4,1%, dok je u sektoru snabdijevanje električnom energijom, gasom i parom zabilježen pad od 5%. U prva tri mjeseca 2015., u odnosu na isti period prethodne, bilježi se rast ukupne industrijske proizvodnje za 7%. Rast proizvodnje zabilježen je u sva tri sektora i to: u sektoru vađenje ruda i kamena za 16,2%, u sektoru snabdijevanje električnom energijom, gasom i parom za 9,7% i u sektoru prerađivačka industrija za 3,5%. U prerađivačkoj industriji deset oblasti bilježi rast proizvodnje i to: proizvodnja duvanskih proizvoda (88,3%), proizvodnja odjevnih predmeta (18,8%), proizvodnja drveta, plute i sl. (11,3%), proizvodnje hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda (90,9%), proizvodnja proizvoda od gume, plastike (preko 100% 1 ), proizvodnja proizvoda od ostalih nemetalnih minerala (4,8%), proizvodnje osnovnih metala (6%), proizvodnje metalnih proizvoda, osim mašina i uređaja (preko 100%), proizvodnja mašina i opreme na drugom mjestu nepomenute (17,9%) i popravka i montaža mašina i opreme (75%). Najveći pad ostvaren je u oblasti proizvodnja prehrambenih proizvoda (-28,3%), a najmanji u oblasti proizvodnje namještaja (-10,9%). 1 Niska osnovica iz prethodne i pojava novog privrednog subjekta u obuhvatu industrije su doveli do pojave enormne stope rasta. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 10

11 Producers` prices of manufactured products In March 2015, producers prices of manufactured products were 0.1% higher in relation to the previous month. Increase in prices was recorded in manufacturing industry (0.1%), while prices in the sector of mining and quarrying and electricity, gas and water supply remained unchanged. Producers prices of manufactured products recorded annual increase of 0.5%. Increase of prices was recorded by all three sectors: electricity, gas and water supply by 1.5%, sector of mining and quarrying by 0.3% and manufacturing industry by 0.1%. Graph 2 Producers` prices of manufactured products Source: Monstat Industrial output Industrial output recorded monthly growth of 5.3% in March Respective production growth of 15.6% and 4.1% was recorded in the manufacturing industry and mining and quarrying sector, while electricity, gas and steam sector recorded the production decline of 5%. The period-on-period comparison shows that total industrial output increased by 7% in the first three months of Prices in mining and quarrying grew by 16.2%, electricity, gas and steam by 9.7% and manufacturing industry prices by 3.5%. Ten areas of manufacturing industry increased production: manufacture of tobacco products (88.3%), manufacture of wearing apparel (18.8%), manufacture of wood products, cork and the like (11.3%), manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (90.9%), manufacture of rubber and plastic products (over 100% 1 ), manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products (4.8%), manufacture of basic metals (6%), manufacture of metal products, except machinery and equipment (over 100%), manufacture of machinery and equipment not mentioned elsewhere. (17.9%) and repair and installation of machinery and equipment (75%). The highest decline was recorded in manufacture of food products (-28.3%), while the lowest decline recorded in furniture production (-10.9%). 1 Low base from the previous and new corporate entity in the industry coverage affected the enormous growth rate. 11 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Grafik br. 3 Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Saobraćaj 2, šumarstvo i građevinarstvo U šumarstvu je u prva tri mjeseca 2015., proizvedeno ukupno m³ šumskih sortimenata, što je za 56,4% manje nego u istom periodu prethodne. 3 Prema preliminarnim podacima Monstata za prva tri mjeseca ove vrijednost izvršenih građevinskih radova bila je viša za 9,6% u odnosu na uporedni period prethodne, dok je građevinska aktivnost mjerena efektivnim časovima rada povećana za 7,6%. Turizam Crnu Goru je, prema preliminanim podacima Monstata, u prva tri mjeseca posjetilo turista, što predstavlja povećanje od 19,3% u odnosu na isti period prethodne. Ostvareno je noćenja, što je za 16,6% više u odnosu na isti period Strani turisti su ostvarili 75,8% ukupno realizovanih noćenja. Tržište rada U martu je, prema evidenciji Monstata, bilo zaposleno lica, što je za 0,8% više u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a za 1% više u odnosu na mart Najveći broj lica zaposlen je u sljedećim djelatnostima: trgovini na veliko i malo, popravka motornih vozila i motocikala (20,6%), državna uprava i odbrana, obavezno socijalno osiguranje (12,3%), obrazovanje (8,1%) smještaja i ishrane (7,4%), prerađivačka industrija (6,6%), zdravstvena i socijalna zaštita (6,6%), saobraćaj i skladištenje (5,7%). Broj nezaposlenih lica je u martu u odnosu na prethodni mjesec manji za 0,8%, a u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne veći je za 0,7%. Prosječne bruto plate su u martu manje za 1,5% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok su prosječne neto plate manje za 1,4%. Prosječna realna neto plata u martu zabilježila je pad od 2,5% na mjesečnom nivou. 2 Podatke za sve vidove saobraćaja, Monstat od objavljuje na kvartalnom nivou, u trenutku pisanja izvještaja nijesu bili dostupni podaci za prvi kvartal Iskazano ponderisanim indeksom, a neponderisanim je proizvodnja manja 52,3% za isti period. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 12

13 Graph 3 Industrial output Source: Monstat Transport 2, forestry and construction During the first three months of 2015, some 9,247 m³ of wood products were produced, which was by 56.4% less in relation to the same period of the previous. 3 According to preliminary Monstat data for the first three months of 2015, the value of executed construction works recorded a y-o-y increase of 9.6%, while construction activity measured by effective working hours increased by 7.6%. Tourism According to preliminary Monstat data, some 65,275 tourists visited Montenegro in the first three months of 2015, which is a 19.3% y-o-y increase. Overnights amounted to 240,511, which is a y-o-y increase of 16.6%. Foreign tourists accounted for 75.8% of total overnights. Labour market Monstat records show that 171,855 persons were employed in March 2015, showing a 0.8% monthly increase and a y-o-y increase of 1%. The highest number of persons was employed in: wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (20.6%), public administration and defence, compulsory social security (12.3%), education (8.1%), accommodation and food service activities (7.4%) manufacturing industry (6.6%), health care and social protection (6.6%) and transport and warehousing (5.7%). In March 2015, monthly decrease in unemployment amounted to 0.8%, and y-o-y growth amounted to 0.7%. In March, the average gross salaries decreased by 1.5% in relation to the previous month, while average net salaries decreased by 1.4%. In March 2015, the average real net salary recorded decrease of 2.5% on a monthly level. 2 The data for all types of transport, Monstat publishes on a quarterly basis as of 2014; at the time of writing the report, data on transport for Q were not available. 3 During the same period, production decreased by 52.3%, expressed by non-weighted index. 13 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Grafik br. 4 Struktura zaposlenih po sektorima, mart Izvor: Monstat Ukupna aktiva i pasiva banaka Bilansna suma banaka je na kraju marta iznosila 3.138,6 miliona eura i viša je nego na kraju prethodnog mjeseca (0,7%), odnosno za 5,7% viša nego u martu U strukturi aktive banaka, u martu 2015., dominantno učešće od 74,6% ostvarili su ukupni krediti, nakon kojih slijede novčana sredstva i računi depozita kod centralnih banaka sa 13,3%, dok se 12,1% odnosilo na preostale stavke aktive. U strukturi pasive, dominantno učešće od 73,7% ostvarili su depoziti, nakon kojih slijedi kapital sa 14,2%, pozajmice sa 7,9%, dok se na ostale stavke odnosilo 4,2% ukupne pasive. Ukupan kapital banaka je na kraju marta tekuće iznosio 447,1 milion eura, i bilježi pad od 0,2% na mjesečnom nivou, odnosno rast od 6% na godišnjem nivou. Krediti odobreni krediti banaka su na kraju marta tekuće iznosili 2.340,8 miliona eura, što predstavlja pad od 1,5% na mjesečnom nivou, odnosno pad od 2,7% na godišnjem nivou. Koeficijent krediti/depoziti je iznosio 1,01% na kraju marta 2015., i niži je nego u martu kada je iznosio 1,14%. Po osnovu kredita banke su na kraju marta tekuće najviše (78,7%) potraživale od privrede i stanovništva. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 14

15 Graph 4 Employment structure by sectors, March 2015 Source: Monstat assets and liabilities of banks At end-march 2015, total assets and liabilities of banks amounted to 3,138.6 million euros or 0.7% more than in the previous month, whereas being higher by 5.7% in relation to March In the structure of banks assets in March 2015, total loans accounted for the main share (74.6%) followed by cash and deposits with central banks (13.3%), while other banks assets items accounted for the remaining 12.1%. In the structure of liabilities, the dominant share of 73.7% was recorded by deposits, followed by capital with 14.2%, borrowings with 7.9%, while other items accounted for 4.2% of total assets. At end-march 2015, total capital of banks amounted to million euros, recording monthly decline of 0.2%, and an annual increase of 6%. Loans banks loans amounted to 2,340.8 million euros at end-march 2015, which represents a monthly decrease of 1.5% and an annual decline of 2.7%. Loans to deposits ratio was 1.01% at end-march 2015, and it was lower than in March 2014 when it amounted to 1.14%. Loans disbursed to corporate and household sectors accounted for the main share of 78.7% in loans and other liabilities of banks. 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 Grafik br. 5 Krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Grafik br. 6 Krediti stanovništvu, privredi i ukupni krediti banaka, u 000 eura Depoziti Depoziti u bankama su u martu iznosili 2.314,6 miliona eura, i bilježe rast od 0,8% na mjesečnom nivou, dok u odnosu na mart bilježe rast od 10%. U ročnoj strukturi ukupnih depozita na kraju marta dominantno učešće od 53,9% imali su oročeni depoziti, dok su depoziti po viđenju činili 46% ukupnih depozita. Preostalih 0,1% odnosilo se na sredstva na escrow računu. U strukturi ukupnih oročenih depozita, najveće učešće imali su depoziti ročnosti od jedne do tri (49,3%) i depoziti ročnosti od tri mjeseca do jedne (39,8%). Tabela br. 1 - Ročna struktura depozita, kraj perioda, % Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 Depoziti po viđenju ,0 Oročeni depoziti ,9 do tri mjeseca od tri mjeseca do jedne od jedne do tri Preko tri Sredstva na escrow računu

17 Graph 5 - loans and deposits, thousand euros Graph 6 - Loans to households, corporate loans and total banks' loans, thousand euros Deposits banks deposits amounted to 2,314.6 million euros at end-march 2015 and they recorded monthly increase of 0.8%, and a 10% growth in relation to March In total deposits maturity structure, time deposits accounted for 53.9%, while demand deposits accounted for 46% of total deposits. The remaining 0.1% referred to funds at escrow account. In the structure of time deposits, the highest share was recorded by deposits with maturity from one to three s (49.3%) and deposits with maturity from three months to one (39.8%). III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 Demand deposits Time deposits Up to 3 months From 3 months to From 1 to 3 s Over 3 s Funds at escrow account Table 1 - Maturity structure of deposits, period-end, % 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Posmatrano po sektorima, na kraju marta u ukupnim depozitima dominirali su depoziti fizičkih lica sa 58,4%. Tabela br. 2 - Sektorska struktura depozita, kraj perioda III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 u 000 EUR u % Finansijske institucije ,3 2,2 2,1 Nefinansijske institucije ,5 31,5 31,8 Opšta vlada (Vlada, državni fondovi, jedinice ,6 4,5 4,1 lokalne samouprave) Fizička lica (stanovništvo) ,9 58,2 58,4 Nevladine i druge neprofitne organizacije ,2 1,3 1,4 Ostalo ,5 2,2 2,2 UKUPNO Depoziti stanovništva Depoziti stanovništva su na kraju marta iznosili 1.352,7 miliona eura i viši su za 1,3% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok su u odnosu na mart viši za 9,2%. U ročnoj strukturi depozita stanovništva, oročeni depoziti su činili 64,5%, depoziti po viđenju 35,5%, dok se neznatan dio odnosio na sredstva na escrow računu. Grafik br. 7 Depoziti stanovništva po ročnosti, u eura Likvidnost banaka Likvidna aktiva banaka je u martu iznosila 583,7 miliona eura i bila je za 23,2 miliona eura ili 3,8% niža nego u prethodnom mjesecu, dok su u odnosu na mart bila viša za 48,8 miliona eura ili 9,1%. U martu 2015., koeficijenti likvidnosti za bankarski sistem u cjelini, na dnevnom i dekadnom nivou, bili su iznad propisanih minimuma. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 18

19 Observed by sectors, households deposits accounted for the main share (58.4%) in total deposits at end-march III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 in thousand euros in % Financial institutions 69,101 51,122 48, Non-financial institutions 621, , , General Government (Government, funds, 96, ,214 95, municipalities) Households 1,239,179 1,335,874 1,352, Non-government and other non-profit 26,108 30,946 31, organizations Other 52,526 50,409 49, TOTAL 2,104,274 2,295,359 2,314, Table 2 - Deposits structure by sectors, period-end,% Household deposits households deposits amounted to 1,352.7 million euros at end-march 2015, and they recorded monthly growth of 1.3%, while they grew by 9.2% relative to March In the maturity structure of household deposits, time deposits made up 64.5%, demand deposits 35.5%, while funds at escrow account made up an insignificant portion of household deposits. Graph 7 Household deposits by maturity, million euros Banks Liquidity Liquid assets of banks amounted to million euros in March 2015, showing a monthly decrease of 23.2 million euros or 3.8%, yet a 48.8 million euros or 9.1% increase in relation to March In March 2015, liquidity ratios, both daily and ten-day, were above the statutory minimum for the entire banking system. 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Obavezna rezerva Na kraju marta 2015., ukupno izdvojena obavezna rezerva banaka kod Centralne banke je iznosila 216,1 milion eura i bilježi rast od 2,4 miliona eura ili 1,1% na mjesečnom nivou, dok u odnosu na mart bilježi rast od 19,9 miliona eura ili 10,1%. Od ukupnog iznosa izdvojene obavezne rezerve na račun obavezne rezerve u zemlji je izdvojeno 47,4%, u državnim zapisima 26,6%, a na račun Centralne banke u inostranstvu 26,1%. U martu je jedanaest banaka iskoristilo mogućnost izdvajanja dijela obavezne rezerve u obliku državnih zapisa, pri čemu su ukupno izdvojena sredstva u obliku državnih zapisa iznosila 57,4 miliona eura. Efektivna stopa obavezne rezerve, mjerena odnosom izdvojene obavezne rezerve i ukupnih depozita iznosila je 9,34% na kraju marta tekuće, i imala je višu vrijednost nego u martu kada je iznosila 9,33%. Grafik br. 8 Izdvojena obavezna rezerva u 000 eura (lijeva skala), efektivna stopa obavezne rezerve, u % (desna skala) Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije (MFI) Ukupna bilansna suma MFI na kraju marta iznosila je 41 milion eura i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec bilježi rast od 4,9%, dok u odnosu na isti period prethodne bilježi rast od 13,7%. U martu krediti MFI iznosili su 41,5 miliona eura i viši su u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 4%, dok u odnosu na isti period prethodne bilježe rast od 8,2%. MFI su tokom perioda poslovale sa pozitivnim finansijskim rezultatom, u ukupnom iznosu od eura. Aktivne kamatne stope Kamatne stope banaka na ukupno odobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa banaka na ukupno odobrene kredite je u martu iznosila 8,30%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 9,11%. Nominalna stopa je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježila pad od 0,05 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa niža za 0,06 u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Na godiš- Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 20

21 Reserve requirements At end-march 2015, total allocated reserve requirement of banks held with the Central Bank of Montenegro amounted to million euros or 2.4 million euros or 1.1% more in relation to the previous month, while it was 19.9 million euros or 10.1% higher compared to March Of total reserve requirement, 47.4% was in the reserve requirement accounts in the country, 26.6% was in T-bill, while 26.1% was allocated to the Central Bank s account held abroad. In March, eleven banks used the opportunity to allocate a part of their reserve requirement in the form of T-bills. Thus, total allocated funds in the form of T-bills amounted to 57.4 million euros. The effective reserve requirement rate, measured as the ratio of allocated reserve requirement to total deposits, amounted to 9.34% at end-march 2015, and it was higher relative to March 2014 (when it amounted to 9.33%). Graph 8 - Allocated reserve requirement in thousand euros (left scale), effective reserve requirement rate in % (right scale) Micro-credit financial institutions (MFIs) MFIs assets and liabilities amounted to 41 million euros at end-march 2015, showing a 4.9% monthly growth and a 13.7% y-o-y increase. In March 2015, total MFIs loans amounted to 41.5 million euros, recording a 4% monthly increase and 8.2% y-o-y increase. During the period 1 January - 31 March 2015, MFIs operated with positive financial result amounting to 461,000 euros. Lending Interest Rates Lending interest rates on total loans granted In March 2015, the weighted average nominal interest rate (WANIR) on total loans granted amounted to 8.30% while weighted average effective interest rate (WAEIR) amounted to 9.11%. WANIR recorded a monthly decline of 0.05 percentage points, while WAEIR declined by 0.06 percentage points. WANIR recorded annual decline of 0.35 percentage points and WAEIR recorded y-o-y decline of 0.31 percentage points. 21 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 njem nivou, nominalna kamatna stopa bilježi pad od 0,35 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa niža za 0,31 p.p. Kamatne stope banaka na novoodobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa banaka na novoodobrene kredite u martu iznosila je 7,80%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 8,94%. Na mjesečnom nivou, nominalna kamatna stopa je zabilježila pad od 0,66 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa niža za 0,80 p.p. Na godišnjem nivou nominalna kamatna stopa je zabilježila pad od 1,27 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa niža za 1,34 p.p. Kamatne stope mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na ukupno odobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na ukupno odobrene kredite je u martu iznosila 21,11%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 25,24%. Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa je zabilježila pad od 0,10 p.p. u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa zabilježila pad od 0,18 p.p. U odnosu na isti period prethodne prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa je viša za 0,20 p.p, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa zabilježila pad od 0,92 p.p. Kamatne stope mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na novoodobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na novoodobrene kredite je u martu iznosila 20,90%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 24,78%. Na mjesečnom nivou, i nominalna kamatna i efektivna stopa zabilježile su pad od 0,28 p.p i 0,45 p.p. respektivno. Na godišnjem nivou, nominalna kamatna stopa je zabilježila pad od 1,00 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa niža za 1,95 p.p. Pasivne kamatne stope Prosječna ponderisana pasivna efektivna kamatna stopa (PPPEKS) iznosila je 1,66% u martu i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec niža je za 0,07 procentnih poena, dok je na godišnjem nivou zabilježila pad od 0,68 p.p. PPEKS na depozite fizičkih lica iznosila je 2,02%, i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec niža je za 0,08 p.p, dok je u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne niža za 0,82 p.p. Istovremeno, PPEKS na depozite pravnih lica iznosila je 1,14% i niža je za 0,06 p.p. u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok u odnosu na isti period prethodne bilježi pad od 0,47 p.p. Tabela br. 3 - PPEKS na ukupne depozite banaka po ročnosti, u % Ročnost III II III Depoziti po viđenju 0,17 0,10 0,09 Oročeni depoziti Do 3 mjeseca 2,93 1,72 2,08 Od 3 mjeseca do 1 3,47 2,64 2,62 Od 1 do 3 4,65 3,48 3,32 Od 3 do 5 godina 4,49 3,67 3,58 Preko 5 godina 3,85 3,51 3,38 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 22

23 Banks's interest rates on new loans In March 2015, WANIR on new loans amounted to 7.8% while WAEIR amounted to 8.94%. WANIR and WAEIR recorded respective monthly declines of 0.66 and 0.80 percentage points. WANIR recorded annual decline of 1.27 percentage points and WAEIR recorded y-o-y decline of 1.34 percentage points. MFIs interest rates on total loans In March 2015, WANIR on total MFI s loans granted amounted to 21.11% and WAEIR amounted to 25.24%. WANIR recorded a monthly decline of 0.10 percentage points, while WAEIR declined by 0.18 percentage points. In relation to March 2014, WANIR increased by 0.20 percentage points, while WAEIR declined by 0.92 percentage points. MFIs interest rates on new loans In March 2015, WANIR on new MFI s loans granted amounted to 20.90% and WAEIR amounted to 24.78%. WANIR and WAEIR recorded respective monthly decreases of 0.28 and 0.45 percentage points. WANIR recorded annual decline of 1.00 percentage points and WAEIR recorded y-o-y decline of 1.95 percentage points. Deposit interest rates Weighted average deposit effective interest rate (WADEIR) amounted to 1.66% in March 2015, recording the month-on-month decrease of 0.07 percentage points and an annual decline of 0.68 percentage points. WAEIR on natural persons deposits amounted to 2.02% and it recorded monthly decrease of 0.08 percentage points, as well as a decrease of 0.82 percentage points relative to March At the same time, WAEIR on legal persons deposits amounted to 1.14% thus recording monthly decline of 0.06 percentage points, while in relation to March 2014 it declined by 0.47 percentage points. Maturity III 2014 II 2015 III 2015 Demand deposits Time deposits Up to 3 months From 3 months to From 1 to 3 s From 3 to 5 s Over 5 s Table 3 WAEIR on total deposits in banks by maturity, % In March 2015, the difference between lending interest rates (to total granted loans) and deposit interest rates amounted to 7.45 percentage points being higher relative both to the previous month and to March 2014 (by 7.44 and 7.08 percentage points, respectively). 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 Razlika između aktivnih (na ukupno odobrene kredite) i pasivnih kamatnih stopa u martu je iznosila 7,45 p.p. i na višem je nivou u odnosu na prethodni mjesec (7,44 p.p.), kao i u odnosu na isti period prethodne (7,08 p.p.). Tržište kapitala U martu na Montenegroberzi ostvaren je promet od 4,5 miliona eura kroz 401 transakciju. Ostvareni promet je bio niži za 28,9% nego na kraju prethodnog mjeseca. U strukturi trgovine ostvarenoj u martu 2015., dominantno učešće od 81,5% je ostvareno na promet raznim vrstama obveznica, 17,9% se odnosilo na promet akcija, dok se 0,6% odnosilo na promet akcija fondova zajedničkog ulaganja. Cjelokupan mjesečni promet ostvaren je kroz sekundarnu trgovinu (100%). Berzanski indeks MONEX20, čija je vrijednost na kraju marta bila ,14 indeksnih poena, viša je u odnosu na kraj prethodnog mjeseca za 2,4%, dok je istovremeno indeks MONEXPIF iznosio 2.651,01 i zabilježio je pad od 1,8% na mjesečnom nivou. Tržišna kapitalizacija na dan je iznosila 3.030,1 miliona eura i na mjesečnom nivou bilježi rast od 1,9%. Koeficijent obrta sredstava na Montenegroberzi je u martu tekuće iznosio 0, i niži je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec kada je iznosio 0, Grafik br. 9 Kretanje indeksa MONEX 20 i MONEX PIF Grafik br Koeficijent obrta sredstava Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 24

25 Capital market In March 2015, Montenegro stock exchange recorded turnover in the amount of 4.5 million euros and 401 transactions. Turnover was 28.9% lower than at the end of the previous month. In the trading structure recorded in March 2015, dominant share of 81.5% referred to various types of bonds, 17.9% referred to shares' turnover while 0.6% referred to joint investment fund's shares turnover. The entire monthly turnover was recorded through secondary trade (100%). The value of the MONEX20 index, which value at end-march 2015 was 12, index points, was 2.4% higher relative to the previous month, while Monex PIF index amounted to 2, and it recorded monthly decline of 1.8%. As at 31 March 2015, market capitalization amounted to 3,030.1 million euros, recording 1.9% increase in relation to the previous month. The turnover coefficient at the Montenegro stock exchange amounted to in March 2015, showing a monthly decrease ( in March 2014). Graph 9 - MONEX 20 and MONEX PIF indices Graph 10 - Turnover coefficient 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 Domaći platni promet Vrijednost realizovanog platnog prometa u zemlji je iznosila 1.895,8 miliona eura u martu 2015., što je za 23,7% više nego u prethodnom mjesecu, odnosno za 1,6% manje nego u istom periodu prethodne. U strukturi ukupno realizovanog platnog prometa, 50% se odnosilo na interni platni promet. Posmatrano prema učešću realizovanih naloga, dominantno učešće od 69,8% ostvario je interni platni promet sa 1,7 miliona realizovanih naloga. Strane direktne investicije Neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija u prva tri mjeseca 2015., bilježi rast. Prema preliminarnim podacima, zabilježen je neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija u iznosu od 86,2 miliona eura, što je za 9,3% više u poređenju sa istim periodom prethodne. Ukupan priliv stranih direktnih investicija iznosio je 100 miliona eura što je za 5,4% manje u poređenju sa posmatranim periodom 2014., dok je istovremeno ostvaren odliv od 13,8 miliona eura. Grafik br. 11 Ukupan priliv stranih direktnih investicija, u hiljadama eura Izvor: CBCG U formi vlasničkih ulaganja ostvaren je priliv od 52,5 miliona eura, što čini 52,5% ukupno ostvarenog priliva u periodu januaru-mart U strukturi vlasničkih ulaganja 17,7 miliona eura se odnosilo na investicije u preduzeća, dok je priliv po osnovu ulaganja u nekretnine iznosio 34,7 miliona eura. Priliv SDI u formi interkompanijskog duga iznosio je 45,3 miliona eura ili 45,3% ostvarenog učešća u ukupnom prilivu, dok je priliv novčanih sredstava po osnovu povlačenja sredstava rezidenata investiranih u inostranstvu iznosio 2,2 miliona eura. Ukupan odliv stranih direktnih investicija iznosio je 13,8 miliona eura, što je za 48,6% manje nego u periodu januaru-mart U strukturi odliva, odliv po osnovu ulaganja rezidenata u inostranstvo iznosio je 6 miliona eura, dok je na povlačenja sredstava nerezidenata investiranih u našu zemlju iznosio 7,8 miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 26

27 Domestic payment transactions The value of the domestic payment transactions amounted to 1,895.8 million euros in March 2015, and they recorded monthly growth of 23.7%, and a 1.6% decrease relative to March Internal payment transactions accounted for 50% in total payment transactions structure. Observed by the share of executed payment orders, the main share was of internal payment transactions (69.8% or 1.7 million of executed orders). Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Net inflow of foreign direct investments increased during the first three months of Preliminary data for show that net FDI inflow amounted to 86.2 million euros, or 9.3% more than in January-March FDI inflow amounted to 100 million euros or 5.4% less relative to January-March 2014, while at the same time there was an outflow of 13.8 million euros. Graph 11 FDI inflow, thousand euros Source: CBCG The inflow in the form of equity investments amounted to 52.5 million euros or 52.5% of total recorded inflow in the period January-March In the structure of equity investments, investments in companies accounted for 17.7 million euros, while inflow arising from the investments in real estates amounted to 34.7 million euros. Inflow of FDI in the form of intercompany debt amounted to 45.3 million euros or 45.3% of the total inflow. Inflow from the withdrawal of monetary assets of residents invested abroad amounted to 2.2 million. FDI outflow amounted to 13.8 million euros, which is a y-o-y decline of 48.6%. In the outflow structure, outflow from residents investments abroad amounted to 6 million euros, while withdrawal of non-residents investments in Montenegro amounted to 7.8 million euros. 27 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

28 Grafik br. 12 Struktura ukupnog priliva stranih direktnih investicija januar-mart Izvor: CBCG Budžet Crne Gore Izvorni prihodi budžeta Crne Gore i državnih fondova u martu 2015., prema procjeni Ministarstva finansija, iznosili su 100,3 miliona eura ili 2,8% procijenjenog BDP-a 4 i bili su za 0,8% niži u odnosu na plan za navedeni mjesec, a u odnosu na mart zabilježili su pad od 0,4%. U strukturi izvornih prihoda, u martu, najveće učešće, 60,2%, ostvarili su prihodi od poreza, zatim doprinosi 34,6%, ostali prihodi 1,9%, naknade 1,5%, takse 1%, primici od otplate kredita i sredstva prenijeta iz prethodne 0,5 i donacije 0,3%. Prihodi od poreza su u martu bili niži od planiranih za 12,1%. Naplata akciza ostvarena je u iznosu od 10,9 miliona eura, što je u odnosu na plan za mart više za 7,3%, a u odnosu na isti mjesec više za 14,1%. Najznačajnija negativna odstupanja u odnosu na plan, u toku marta, ostvarena su kod poreza na dodatu vrijednost, poreza na dohodak fizičkih lica, poreza na dobit pravnih lica, kao i kod naplate taksi. Izdaci budžeta (ukupni izdaci umanjeni za otplatu dugova), u martu 2015., iznosili su 108,7 miliona eura, ili 3,1% BDP-a, što je za 7,7% niže u odnosu na isti period prethodne, a za 16,7% niže u odnosu na plan. Najveće izvršenje izdataka zabilježeno je kod izdataka za penzije (32,8 miliona eura) i bruto zarade (28,4 miliona eura). U martu kapitalni budžet iznosio je 3,4 miliona eura. Budžet Crne Gore, u martu 2015., ostvario je deficit od 8,4 miliona eura, dok je za tri mjeseca budžetski deficit iznosio 51,6 miliona eura ili 1,5% BDP-a. 4 Procjenjeni BDP za godinu iznosi miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore. 28

29 Graph 12 - Structure of total FDI inflow, January March 2015 Source: CBCG Budget of Montenegro According to Ministry of Finance estimate, source revenues of the Budget of Montenegro and state funds amounted to million euros or 2.8% of the estimated GDP 4 in March 2015, and they were by 0.8% lower than planned for this month, yet by 0.4% higher than in March In the structure of source revenues in March, tax revenues accounted for the main share of 60.2%, followed by contributions with 34.6%, other revenues with 1.9%, fees 1.5%, duties 1%, revenues from loan repayments and assets transferred from the previous 0.5% and donations 0.3%. In March, revenues from tax collection were by 12.1% lower than planned. The excise duties were collected in the amount of 10.9 million euros or 7.3% more than planned for this month, and they showed a 14.1% y-o-y increase. The most significant negative deviations in relation to the plan were recorded in collection of value added tax, personal income tax, corporate income tax as well as duties. In March 2015, budget expenditures (total revenues less debt repayments) amounted to million euros or 3.1% of GDP, recording y-o-y decrease of 7.7% and 16.7% lower than planned. The highest execution of expenditures was for pensions (32.8 million euros) and gross wages (28.4 million euros). The capital budget amounted to 3.4 million euros in March In March 2015, the Budget of Montenegro ran a deficit of 8.4 million euros, whereas the deficit in the three months period of 2015 amounted to 51.6 million euros or 1.5% of GDP. 4 Estimated GDP for 2015 amounted to million euros. 29 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

30 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika (preliminarni podaci) Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics (preliminary data) Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table CBM Survey, end-period balance, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SPV Gotovina Depoziti HOV osim akcija Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Krediti Rezervna pozicija u MMF-u Ostala potrazivanja Depoziti SDR alokacija 8 ( ) Ostale obaveze ( ) Neto strana aktiva 13 (8-12) Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja 17 (15-16) Potraživanja od ostalih sektora ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti (21+22) Po viđenju Oročeni 2007 ** , ** 26 (24+25) Ukupan kapital , , , , , , , Jan , Jan Feb , Feb Mar , Mar Apr , Apr Maj , May Jun , , June Jul , July Avg , Aug Sep , Sep Okt , Oct Nov , Nov Dec , Dec Jan , Jan Feb , , , , , , , , , , ,1 Feb Mar , , , , , , , , , Mar Monetary gold and SDR holdings Cash Deposits Securities other than shares Loans Reserve position in the Fund Other claims 8 ( ) Deposits SDR allocation Other liabilities 12 ( ) 13 (8-12) Net foreign assets Claims on banks Claims on Central Government Liabilities to Central Government 17 (15-16) 18 Net claims Claims on other sectors 19 ( ) Other items (net) Net claims on Central Government Banks deposits Other sector's deposits Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* Reserve reqirements Other deposits 23 (21+22) Demand deposits Time deposits 26 (24+25) 27 capital * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Izvrsena revizija podataka i metodologije za period od Izvor: Bilans stanja CBCG * Central Bank of Montenegro does not issue currency; EURO is the legal tender in Montenegro **Data and methodology revised since 2007 Source: CBCG balance sheet Statistički bilten. 30

31 Tabela Monetarni pregled - bilans banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Other Depository Corporations Survey, end-period balance, EUR thousand Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Domaći krediti Obaveze Gotovina Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Depoziti 6 ( ) HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostale obaveze 11 ( ) Neto strana aktiva 12 (6-11) Potraživanja od CBCG Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja Potraživanja od ostalih sektora Neto ostale stavke Obaveze prema Centralnoj banci Depoziti po viđenju Depoziti ostalih sektora (21+22) Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun June Jul July Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Cash Deposits Securities other than sheres Loans Other claims 6 ( ) Deposits Securities other than sheres Loans Other liabilities 11 ( ) 12 (6-11) Net foreign assets Claims on Central Bank Claims on Central government Liabilities to Central governmetn 16 (14-15) 16 (14-15) Net claims Claims on other sectors 18 ( ) 18 ( ) Other items (net) Net claims on Central government Deposits by other sectors Claims on nonresident Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic loans Liabilities Liabilities to the Central bank Demand depositsu Oročeni depoziti Time deposits 23 (21+22) HOV osim akcija Securities other than shares Ukupan kapital Capital * Revizija podataka za period je u toku Izvor: Mjesečni izvještaji banaka * Revision of data from 2007 to 2012 is in progress. Source: Banks' monthly reports 31 Statistical Bulletin