SADRÆAJ CONTENTS Tablica 1: Osnovni makroekonomski pokazatelji hrvatskog gospodarstva 4 Table 1: Basic Macroeconomic Indicators for the Croatian Economy CROLEI - NavjeπÊujuÊi pokazatelji industrijske proizvodnje 5 CROLEI - Leading indicators of industrial production Makroekonomska kretanja 6 Macroeconomic trends Dræavni proraëun 12 Budgetary Central Government Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava 16 Consolidated Central Government Konsolidirana opêa dræava 16 Consolidated General Government Tablica 2: Prihodi dræavnog proraëuna 18 Table 2: Budgetary Central Government Revenue Tablica 3: Rashodi dræavnog proraëuna 19 Table 3: Budgetary Central Government Expense Tablica 4: Transakcije u nefinancijskoj imovini dræavnog proraëuna 20 Table 4: Transactions in Nonfinancial Assets of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 5: Transakcije u financijskoj imovini dræavnog proraëuna 21 Table 5: Transactions in Financial Assets of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 6: Transakcije u obvezama dræavnog proraëuna 21 Table 6: Transactions in Liabilities of Budgetary Central Government Tablica 7: Transakcije u financijskoj imovini i obvezama, po sektorima 22 Table 7: Transactions in Financial Assets and Liabilities, by sectors Tablica 8: IzvjeπÊe o operacijama dræavnog proraëuna 23 Table 8: Statement of Budgetary Central Government Operations Tablica 9: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za mirovinsko osiguranje (HZMO) 24 Table 9: The Croatian Institute for Pension Insurance (HZMO) Transactions Tablica 10: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za zdravstveno osiguranje (HZZO) 25 Table 10: The Croatian Health Insurance Institute (HZZO) Transactions Tablica 11: Transakcije Hrvatskog zavoda za zapoπljavanje (HZZ) 26 Table 11: The Croatian Employment Service (HZZ) Transactions Tablica 12: Transakcije javnog poduzeêa Hrvatske vode 27 Table 12: The Croatian Waters Transactions Tablica 13: Transakcije Fonda za zaπtitu okoliπa i energetsku uëinkovitost 28 Table 13: The Environment Protection Fund Transactions Tablica 14: Transakcije Hrvatskih autocesta d.o.o. (HAC) 29 Table 14: The Croatian Motorways Ltd. Transactions Tablica 15: Transakcije Hrvatskih cesta d.o.o. (HC) 30 Table 15: The Croatian Roads Ltd. Transactions Tablica 16: Transakcije Dræavne agencije za osiguranje πtednih uloga i sanaciju banaka (DAB) 31 Table 16: The State Agency for Deposit Insurance and Banks RehabilitationTransactions Tablica 17: Transakcije Hrvatskog fonda za privatizaciju (HFP) 32 Table 17: The Croatian Privatization Fund Transactions Tablica 18: Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava prema ekonomskoj klasifikaciji 33 Table 18: Consolidated Central Government by Economic Category Tablica 19: Konsolidirana srediπnja dræava prema razinama dræavne vlasti 34 Table 19: Consolidated Central Government According to Government Level Tablica 20: Transakcije jedinica lokalne i podruëne (regionalne) samouprave - (53 najveêe jedinice) 35 Table 20: Local Government Transactions (the largest 53 units) Tablica 21: Konsolidirana opêa dræava prema ekonomskoj klasifikaciji 36 Table 21: Consolidated General Government by Economic Category Tablica 22: Konsolidirana opêa dræava prema razinama dræavne vlasti 37 Table 22: Consolidated General Government according to government level Tablica 23: Stanje duga opêe dræave 38 Table 23: General Government Debt Stock Javni dug 39 Public Debt Tablica 24: Unutarnji dug konsolidirane srediπnje dræave 41 Table 24: Consolidated Central Government Domestic Debt Tablica 25: Rezultati aukcija Trezorskih zapisa Ministarstva financija 42 Table 25: Results of the Treasury Bill's Auctions held by the Ministry of Finance Trezorski zapisi 43 Treasury Bills Metodoloπka objaπnjenja 44 Notes on Methodology Rukovodstvo Ministarstva financija 53 Management of the Ministry of Finance Kalendar objavljivanja 54 Advance Release Calendar srpanj / July 3
TABLICA 1: OSNOVNI MAKROEKONOMSKI POKAZATELJI HRVATSKOG GOSPODARSTVA TABLE 1: BASIC MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE CROATIAN ECONOMY 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. Izvor: Dræavni zavod za statistiku, Hrvatska narodna banka, Ministarstvo financija Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Croatian National Bank, Ministry of Finance 2004.. 2004.. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 X. XI. XII. I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. BDP, tekuêe cijene (mil. HRK) 141 579 152 519 165 639 179 390 193 067 207 082 51 220 56 820 51 986 49 574 - - - - - - - - - - - GDP, current prices (mil. HRK) BDP, realne stope rasta -0,9 2,9 4,4 5,2 4,3 3,8 3,8 3,6 3,6 1,8 - - - - - - - - - - - GDP, real growth rates FiziËki obujam industrijske proizvodnje, stopa rasta u % -1,4 1,7 6,0 5,4 4,1 3,7 2,3 2,9 3,9 0,2 8,9-3,3 5,9 9,7 6,3-1,6-2,9 6,3 8,2 12,3 5,4 Total volume of industrial production, growth rate as % Promet u trgovini na malo, realna stopa rasta u % -0,4 14,4 9,5 12,6 3,7 2,6 0,3 4,6 2,3 0,6 5,2 0,9 4,5 1,7 1,1-3,3 3,5 2,0 6,6 7,3 - Retail sales turnover, real growth rate as % Indeks fiziëkog obujma graappleevinskih radova, stopa rasta u % -7,7-9,1 3,6 12,8 22,8 2,0 6,4-3,2-4,8-6,6 - -11,1-1,6-0,5-1,0-11,0-6,9-6,5-6,7 - - Total volume of construction projects, growth rate as % NoÊenja turista, stopa rasta u % -15,0 45,0 11,0 3,0 4,0 2,0-2,0 3,0 5,0 6,0 0,5 7,0 9,0-3,0-3,0-10,0 21,0-11,0 8,0 0,0 13,0 Nights spent by tourists, growth rate as % ProizvoappleaËke cijene, prosjek, % 2,6 9,7 3,6-0,4 1,9 3,5 3,2 5,1 5,5 4,8 3,2 6,3 5,5 4,8 4,4 5,1 5,1 4,5 2,3 2,4 2,3 Producer's prices, period average, % PotroπaËke cijene, prosjek, % 4,0 4,6 3,7 1,7 1,8 2,1 2,3 1,8 2,3 3,1 3,0 2,0 2,3 2,7 2,0 3,3 3,9 3,5 2,8 2,9 3,1 Consumer prices, period average, % Ukupno zaposleni, kraj razdoblja 1 333 123 1 321 476 1 340 504 1 351 364 1 387 910 1 397 416 1 424 275 1 423 210 1 397 416 1 384 154 1 417 284 1 414 049 1 407 484 1 397 416 1 387 637 1 382 588 1 384 154 1 390 813 1 403 404 1 417 284 1 427 462 Total persons in employment, end of period Broj nezaposlenih, kraj razdoblja 341 730 378 544 395 141 366 162 318 684 317 577 295 646 299 469 317 577 329 020 297 602 307 508 312 786 317 577 326 938 330 183 329 020 320 283 308 311 297 602 293 176 Unemployed persons, end of period Stopa nezaposlenosti, kraj razdoblja 20,4 22,6 23,1 21,5 19,1 18,5 17,2 17,4 18,5 19,2 17,4 17,9 18,2 18,5 19,1 19,3 19,2 18,7 18,0 17,4 17,0 Unemployment rate, end of period Stopa anketne nezaposlenosti, prosjek, % 13,6 16,1 15,8 14,8 14,3 13,8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Unemployment rate - ILO comparable, period average, % ProsjeËna mjeseëna bruto plaêa, stopa rasta u % 10,2 7,0 3,9 6,0 4,8 6,4 6,4 6,7 5,9 4,4 4,5 3,6 8,1 6,0 3,4 4,4 5,3 3,1 6,1 4,3 - Average monthly gross wages and salaries, growth rate as % ProsjeËna mjeseëna bruto plaêa, kune 4 551 4 869 5 061 5 366 5 623 5 985 6 002 5 988 6 110 6 087 6 273 5 915 6 276 6 139 6 013 5 965 6 280 6 112 6 358 6 348 - Average monthly gross wages and salaries paid off in HRK TeËaj HRK/USD, prosjek 7,11 8,28 8,34 7,86 6,70 6,04 6,17 6,05 5,84 5,72 5,83 6,05 5,83 5,64 5,74 5,78 5,65 5,72 5,76 6,01 6,06 Exchange rate HRK/USD$, period average TeËaj HRK/EUR, prosjek 7,58 7,64 7,47 7,41 7,56 7,50 7,44 7,38 7,55 7,51 7,35 7,55 7,55 7,55 7,56 7,52 7,46 7,40 7,33 7,31 7,30 Exchange rate HRK/EUR, period average Vanjskotrgovinska bilanca (mil. USD) -3 485-3 455-4 481-5 818-8 022-8 561-2 393-2 062-2 273-2 082-2 730-727 -766-779 -547-576 -981-873 -917-939 -836 Trade Balance (mil. US$) Izvoz (mil. USD) 4 247 4 432 4 666 4 904 6 187 8 022 1 914 2 059 2 232 1 957 2 310 716 744 772 577 682 699 824 700 801 703 Exports (mil. US$) Uvoz (mil. USD) 7 732 7 887 9 147 10 722 14 209 16 583 4 307 4 122 4 505 4 039 5 039 1 444 1 510 1 550 1 124 1 258 1 680 1 698 1 617 1 740 1 539 Imports (mil. US$) TekuÊi raëun platne bilance (mil. USD) -1 408-471 -727-1 917-2 072-1 641-1 184 2 424-1 403-1 716 - - - - - - - - - - - Current Account Balance (mil. USD) TekuÊi raëun platne bilance (% BDP-a) -7,0-2,5-3,7-8,7-6,9-4,6-14,10 25,90-15,50-19,80 - - - - - - - - - - - Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) Devizne rezerve HNB, krajem razdoblja (mil. USD) 3 025 3 525 4 704 586 8 191 8 759 7 769 7 949 8 759 8 680-8 125 8 388 8 759 8 559 8 665 8 680 8 781 8 751 8 520 - International reserves of CNB, end of period (mil. USD) Ukupni vanjski dug RH, krajem razdoblja (mil. USD) 10 143 11 282 11 870 15 680 24 759 30 859 26 615 26 987 30 859 29 982-27 998 29 341 30 859 29 546 29 799 29 982 30 225 29 810 - - Total outstanding external debt,end of period (mil. USD) Unutarnji dug konsolidirane srediπnje dræave, k.r. (mil. HRK) 13 944 14 550 21 944 23 597 26 261 35 789 29 964 34 200 35 789 45 145 45 279 34 845 36 875 35 789 38 457 39 559 45 145 44 996 45 203 45 279 - Internal debt of consolidated central government, eop. (mil. HRK) Krediti poslovnih banaka, % godiπnja promjena -4,8 10,1 23,2 33,6 16,8 13,1 11,2 12,6 13,1 16,8 20,5 12,1 13,2 13,1 13,3 14,3 16,8 16,0 19,8 20,5 18,7 Commercial bank's loans, growth rate as % Kamatna stopa na trezorske zapise od 91 dan, kraj razdoblja 11,50% 7,50% 4,00% 2,00% 4,00% 3,80% 3,95% 5,25% 3,80% 4,55% 4,00% 5,00% 4,10% 3,80% 4,00% 3,50% 4,55% 3,60% 4,00% 4,00% 4,20% Interest rates on treasury bills of 91 days maturity, end of period ZIBOR (3 mj.), prosjek 15,30% 11,10% 7,90% 4,60% 5,50% 7,35% 6,36% 7,85% 7,01% 6,52% 5,74% 7,57% 6,86% 6,68% 6,59% 6,47% 6,50% 5,75% 5,32% 6,15% 6,43% ZIBOR (3 m), average 4 srpanj / July
CROLEI NAVJE UJU I POKAZATELJI INDUSTRIJSKE PROIZVODNJE U lipnju. godine CROLEI prognostiëki indeks iskazao je Ëetvrti uzastopni mjeseëni porast vrijednosti u iznosu od 0,22 boda. Iako je taj porast, zajedno s onim iz svibnja (0,09 bodova), neπto umjereniji od porasta CROLEI indeksa u oæujku i travnju (0,80, odnosno 0,30), moæe se zakljuëiti da se u sljedeêih πest mjeseci oëekuje umjereni rast ekonomske aktivnosti u zemlji. Istodobno, difuzni indeks za lipanj. iznosi 81,8 posto, πto je viπe nego πto je zabiljeæeno u prethodna dva mjeseca. Visoka vrijednost difuznog indeksa u lipnju. godine rezultat je rasta desezoniranih vrijednosti devet komponenti CROLEI indeksa, dok su istodobno samo dvije komponente, po jedna iz realnog sektora i iz monetarnog sektora, iskazale pad desezoniranih vrijednosti. Ovaj podatak govori nam o πiroko zasnovanom rastu vrijednosti indeksa, buduêi da je rast indeksa zasnovan na komponentama indeksa iz svih sektora. Visoka vrijednost difuznog indeksa CROLEI prognostiëkog indeksa za lipanj. takoappleer nam govori da se moæe oëekivati umjereni porast industrijske aktivnosti u gospodarstvu. U strukturi CROLEI indeksa, devet komponenti zabiljeæilo je rast desezonirane vrijednosti, dok su dvije komponente indeksa imale pad. Pad desezoniranih vrijednosti zabiljeæile su komponente ukupni broj noêenja turista iz realnog sektora, Ëija vrijednost uglavnom oscilira, te devizne rezerve poslovnih banaka koje biljeæe konstantni pad vrijednosti u proteklih πest mjeseci. S druge strane, rast desezoniranih vrijednosti zabiljeæile su preostale komponente iz realnog sektora i monetarnog sektora te komponente iz fiskalnog sektora i sektora meappleunarodne trgovine. Od komponenti koje su ostvarile rast desezoniranih vrijednosti vaæno je napomenuti da je kod komponenti realna trgovina na malo, ukupna likvidna sredstva, gotov novac te kunski πtedni i oroëeni depoziti poslovnih banaka uoëljiv dugotrajniji trend porasta desezoniranih vrijednosti, dok ostale komponente uglavnom osciliraju bez jasno uoëljive pozitivne ili negativne tendencije rasta. CROLEI LEADING INDICATORS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In June CROLEI prognostic index reported the forth consecutive monthly increase of its value in the amount of 0.22 points. Even though this increase, together with the one from May (0.09), is somewhat moderate than the increase of CROLEI index in March and April (0.80 and 0.30) it can be concluded than in the next six months a moderate growth of economic activity in the country is to be expected. In the same time, a diffusive index for June amounts to 81.1% which is more than it is recorded in the previous two months. High value of the diffusive index in June is a result of an increase in seasonally adjusted values of nine components of CROLEI index while only two components, one from real and the other from monetary sector, reported a decrease in its seasonally adjusted values. This data shows that the increase of the index value is broadly based since it is derived from the components from all sectors. High value of the diffusive index of CROLEI prognostic index for June also shows that moderate increase of industrial activity in the economy can be expected. Within the structure of CROLEI index, nine components recorded an increase in its seasonally adjusted values while two index components reported a fall. A decrease of seasonally adjusted values is recorded by total number of tourist bed nights from real sector, which values are usually oscillating, and by foreign reserves of commercial banks which record a constant decrease in the past six months. On the other hand, an increase in the seasonally adjusted values is recorded by all of the remaining components from real and monetary sector and all components from fiscal and external sector. Within these components which recorded an increase in its values, it should be pointed out that real retail trade, total liquid funds, total cash and domestic currency time and savings deposits of commercial banks show a long-term trend of increase in its seasonally adjusted values while other components are generally oscillating without any recognizable positive or negative tendency of growth. 124 Crolei i industrijska proizvodnja Crolei and industrial production (I. 2000. - VI..) 114 120 112 desezonirani indeksi seasonally adjusted indices (2000=100) 116 112 108 104 110 108 106 104 102 100 I/00 IV VII X I/01 IV VII X I/02 IV VII X I/03 IV VII X I/04 IV VII X I/05 IV 100 CROLEI IND mjesec/godina month/year srpanj / July 5
MAKROEKONOMSKA KRETANJA REALNI SEKTOR Nakon usporavanja rasta ekonomske aktivnosti u prvom tromjeseëju tekuêe godine, podaci o kretanjima u realnom sektoru upuêuju na znaëajan oporavak tijekom drugog tromjeseëja. Indeks obujma industrijske proizvodnje veê je u travnju zabiljeæio visok rast od 6,3 posto da bi dodatno ubrzao u svibnju na 8,2 posto te u lipnju na 12,3 posto. Realni rast prometa od trgovine na malo takoappleer je zabiljeæio oæivljavanje tijekom drugog tromjeseëja. Nakon neπto niæeg rasta u travnju od 2 posto, u svibnju je trgovina na malo realno porasla za 6,6 posto, a u lipnju joπ viπe ubrzala na 7,3 posto, πto je najviπi rast joπ od sredine 2003. godine. Opisana kretanja zasigurno Êe imati utjecaja i na rast bruto domaêeg proizvoda te se u drugom tromjeseëju moæe oëekivati ubrzanje njegova rasta. Prema podacima Dræavnog zavoda za statistiku, industrijska proizvodnja zabiljeæila je u srpnju. godine meappleugodiπnju stopu rasta od 5,4 posto. U prvih sedam mjeseci tekuêe godine, industrijska proizvodnja porasla je 4,8 posto u usporedbi s prvih sedam mjeseci prethodne godine. U obzir treba uzeti efekt baznog razdoblja gdje se vidi da je u srpnju proπle godine meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta bila niska te iznosila 1,2 posto, ali s druge strane i Ëinjenicu da je srpanj tekuêe godine imao jedan radni dan manje od srpnja prethodne godine. PromatrajuÊi trend indeks ukupne industrijske proizvodnje, moæe se vidjeti da je on u srpnju u odnosu na lipanj. godine porastao 0,6 posto. Gledano prema glavnim industrijskim grupacijama, najviπi rast u prvih sedam mjeseci biljeæe kapitalni proizvodi (15,9 posto) te netrajni proizvodi za πiroku potroπnju (6,2 posto). Promatrano prema djelatnostima, lagani pad zabiljeæili su opskrba elektriënom energijom, plinom i vodom (-1,6 posto) te rudarstvo i vaappleenje (-4,6 posto), dok je preraappleivaëka industrija, koja ima najveêi udio u ukupnoj industrijskoj proizvodnji (82,5 posto), zabiljeæila rast od 6,4 posto. NajveÊi doprinos rastu preraappleivaëke industrije u prvih sedam mjeseci. godine dolazi od proizvodnje hrane i piêa koja je porasla 6,1 posto, dok od ostalih kategorija visoke stope rasta biljeæe izdavaëka i tiskarska djelatnost (18,2 posto), proizvodnja strojeva i ureappleaja (17,9 posto) te proizvodnja ostalih prometnih sredstava (10,6 posto). U usporedbi s istim mjesecom prethodne godine, trgovina na malo zabiljeæila je u lipnju. godine visok nominalni rast od 10,8 posto. Ako se iskljuëi utjecaj inflacije, realni rast trgovine na malo iznosio je 7,3 posto. Promatra li se razdoblje od prvih πest mjeseci tekuêe godine, meappleugodiπnji nominalni rast prometa od trgovine na malo iznosio je 6,6 posto, a realni je rast iznosio 3,2 posto. AnalizirajuÊi tromjeseëni realni rast prometa trgovine na malo, moæe se zamijetiti ubrzanje rasta od 0,7 posto u prvom tromjeseëju na 5,2 posto u drugom tromjeseëju. PromatrajuÊi nominalni promet trgovine na malo prema djelatnostima, moæe se vidjeti da najviπi rast u prvih πest mjeseci i dalje biljeæe prodaja, odræavanje i popravak motornih vozila (16,9 posto) te trgovina na malo motornim gorivima i mazivima (24,6 posto), na πto je utjecalo i poveêanje cijena nafte. Visok porast trgovine na malo u lipnju. godine djelomiëno je rezultat i neπto niæe baze u istom mjesecu prethodne godine, no usprkos tomu, uz pretpostavku nastavka trenda rasta kredita stanovniπtvu te uz nadolazeêu turistiëku sezonu, moæe se oëekivati daljnji rast trgovine na malo. Inflacija mjerena indeksom potroπaëkih cijena smanjila se u srpnju u odnosu na lipanj tekuêe godine za -0,2 posto. Meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta se ubrzala s 2,9 posto u lipnju na 3,1 posto u srpnju, dok je prosjeëni meappleugodiπnji porast u prvih sedam mjeseci iznosio 3,1 posto. NajveÊi doprinos smanjenju indeksa potroπaëkih cijena u srpnju u odnosu na lipanj. godine (-0,2 posto) imale su cijene prehrane i bezalkoholnih piêa (-0,46 posto) te cijene odjeêe i obuêe (-0,33 posto), a najveêi doprinos poveêanju imale su cijene prometa (0,28 posto), cijene rekreacije i kulture (0,13 posto), cijene ugostiteljskih usluga (0,05 posto), cijene stanovanja, vode, energije, plina i drugih goriva te cijene obrazovanja (0,04 posto). 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Meappleugodiπnji rast industrijske proizvodnje i trgovine na malo Annual growth of industrial production and retail trade I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 Industrijska proizvodnja / Industrial production Realna trgovina na malo / Real retail trade TromjeseËni rast industrijske proizvodnje i trgovine na malo Quarterly growth of industrial production and retail trade Industrijska proizvodnja / Industrial production I 2004 II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I II Realna trgovina na malo / Real retail trade NajveÊi doprinos rastu cijena na meappleugodiπnjoj razini doπao je od kategorije s najveêim udjelom u strukturi potroπaëke koπarice, prehrane, koja je u srpnju. bila viπa 4,5 posto od srpnja 2004. godine. Od ostalih kategorija znaëajan meappleugodiπnji porast u srpnju zabiljeæen je kod alkoholnih piêa i duhana (9,8 posto), upotrebe prometnih sredstava (9 posto), obrazovanja (6,2 posto) te prometnih usluga (6,1 posto). 6 srpanj / July
MACROECONOMIC TRENDS THE REAL SECTOR After the deceleration of the economic activity growth in the first quarter of current year, the data of real sector developments indicate significant revival during the second quarter. The industrial production volume index already in April recorded high growth of 6.3 percent in order to accelerate further up to 8.2 percent in May and 12.3 percent in June. Real retail trade turnover growth also recorded recovery in the second quarter. After the somewhat lower growth in April of 2 percent, in May retail trade grew really by 6.6 percent and in June accelerated even more to 7.3 percent which represents the highest growth since middle of the year 2003. Described developments will surely have influence on the gross domestic product growth and acceleration of its growth can be expected. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics data, industrial production recorded in July annual growth rate of 5.4 percent. In the first seven months of the current year, industrial production grew by 4.8 percent when compared to the same period of previous year. When the effect of the base period is taken into consideration it can be seen that growth rate in July 2004 was at low level of 1.2 percent, but on the other side the fact that July 2004 had one working day more should also be considered. In July, the trend index of the total industrial production was by 0.6 percent higher than in June. Observed by the main industrial groupings capital goods recorded the highest growth of 15.9 percent in the first seven months of the current year and non durable consumer goods 6.2 percent. Among the activities that recorded decrease were electricity, gas and water supply (-1.6 percent) and mining and quarrying (-4.6 percent) while manufacturing, which has the highest share in the total industrial production, recorded an increase of 6.4 percent. The highest contribution to the growth in industry in the first six months came from manufacture of food products and beverages which grew by 6.1 percent while higher growth among other categories recorded publishing and printing (18.2 percent), manufacture of machinery and equipment (17.9 percent) and manufacture of other transport equipment (10.6 percent). When compared to the same month of the previous year, retail trade turnover recorded in June high nominal growth of 10.8 percent. Excluding the impact of inflation, real retail trade turnover growth amounted to 7.3 percent. When 109 107 105 103 101 99 97 95 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Meappleugodiπnji rast neto i bruto plaêa Annual growth of net and gross earnings I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V 2004 Neto plaêe / Net earnings Bruto plaêe / Gross earnings Meappleugodiπnji rast potroπaëkih i proizvoappleaëkih cijena Annual growth of consumers and producers prices I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII 2004 PotroπaËke cijene / Consumers prices ProizvoappleaËke cijene / Producers prices the first six months of current year are observed, nominal retail trade turnover growth amounted to 6.6 percent and real growth amounted to 3.2 percent. Analyzing quarterly growth of retail trade, acceleration from 0.7 percent in the first quarter to 5.2 percent in the second quarter can be noticed. When nominal growth of retail trade by activities is observed, the highest growth in the first six months was still recorded in sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (16.9 percent) and retail trade of automotive fuel (24.6 percent) which was also influenced by increase in oil prices. The high growth of the retail trade in June is partly a result of lower base in the previous years, but despite that, assuming continuation of household credit growth and forthcoming tourist season, the further growth of retail trade can be expected. Inflation measured by consumer price index decreased in July when compared to June by of the current year by 0.2 percent. Annual growth rate increased from 2.9 percent in June to 3.1 percent in July while average annual growth in first seven months amounted to 3.1 percent. As compared to June, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.46 percent) and the prices of clothing and footwear (-0.33 percent) contributed most to the decrease of 0.2 percent in July, while the prices of transport (0.28 percent), the prices of recreation and culture (0.13 percent), the prices of hotel and restaurant services (0.05 percent), the prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and water supply and education (0.04 percent) contributed most to the increase in the prices in the same month. The highest contribution to CPI growth on year level came from the category with the highest share in consumer basket structure, food, which was in July on the 4.5 percent higher level than in July 2004. Other categories that recorded significant increase annually were: alcoholic beverages and tobacco (9.8 percent), operation of personal transport equipment (9 percent), education (6.2 percent) and transport services (6.1 percent). srpanj / July 7
MONETARNI SEKTOR Primarni novac Hrvatske narodne banke bio je potkraj lipnja. godine na razini od 35,530 milijarde kuna, πto u odnosu na svibanj Ëini porast od 2,299 milijarde kuna. Na taj porast najveêi utjecaj imalo je poveêanje depozita banaka kod Hrvatske narodne banke koji su u lipnju porasli za 1,736 milijuna kuna te rast gotovog novca izvan banaka u iznosu od 626 milijuna kuna. Meappleugodiπnja stopa rasta primarnog novca iznosila je u lipnju 14 posto, πto je najviπa godiπnja stopa rasta primarnog novca u tekuêoj godini. NovËana masa M1 porasla je u lipnju za 700 milijuna kuna te je potkraj mjeseca bila na razini od 36,735 milijardi kuna. Takav je porast u prvom redu rezultat rasta gotovog novca izvan banaka, koji je u promatranom razdoblju porastao za 626 milijuna kuna, dok se ostale dvije komponente novëane mase, depozitni novac kod banaka i ostali depoziti kod Hrvatske narodne banke, nisu znatnije mijenjale. Do manje promjene doπlo je u strukturi najveêe komponente novëane mase, tj. depozitnog novca kod banaka, gdje je lagano poveêan udio stanovniπtva. Promatra li se meappleugodiπnji rast novëane mase, doπlo je do usporavanja s 8,6 posto u svibnju na 7,2 posto u lipnju. godine. Ukupna likvidna sredstva M4 drugi mjesec zaredom biljeæe nominalno poveêanje te su se nakon poveêanja u svibnju od 2,729 milijardi kuna u lipnju poveêala za dodatne 2 milijarde kuna i popele na razinu od 142,610 milijardi kuna. Sve komponente ukupnih likvidnih sredstava zabiljeæile su nominalni rast osim instrumenata træiπta novca, koji su se smanjili za 79 milijuna kuna. Kunski πtedni i oroëeni depoziti poveêali su se potkraj lipnja na razinu od 25 milijardi kuna, πto je poveêanje od 531 milijun kuna u odnosu na kraj svibnja, dok su se devizni depoziti kod banaka poveêali u promatranom razdoblju za 850 milijuna kuna i popeli na razinu od 79,8 milijardi kuna. PromatrajuÊi godiπnje stope rasta, moæe se vidjeti da se rast ukupnih likvidnih sredstava lagano smanjio s 10,3 posto u svibnju na 10,1 posto u lipnju. Na poveêanje kunskih πtednih i oroëenih depozita u lipnju najviπe je utjecalo pove- Êanje depozita stanovniπtva (319,3 milijuna kuna) i nebankarskih financijskih institucija (226,4 milijuna kuna). Potkraj lipnja kunski πtedni i oroëeni depoziti stanovniπtva iznosili su 13,460 milijardi kuna, a kunski πtedni i oroëeni depoziti nebankarskih financijskih institucija bili su na razini od 1,877 milijardi kuna. Kunski depoziti poduzeêa zabiljeæili su u lipnju nominalno poveêanje od 26 milijuna kuna te su potkraj mjeseca bili na razini od 8,408 milijardi kuna. PromatrajuÊi kunski iskaz deviznih πtednih i oroëenih depozita, moæe se vidjeti da je najveêi utjecaj na poveêanje u lipnju imalo pove- Êanje depozita stanovniπtva u iznosu od 875 milijuna kuna. Meappleugodiπnji rast ukupnih kredita poslovnih banaka ubrzan je s 19,8 posto u svibnju na 20,5 posto u lipnju tekuêe godine. Tako visoka stopa rasta kredita nije zabiljeæena od rujna 2003. godine. NajveÊi doprinos rastu kredita doπao je od sektora stanovniπtva te su ukupni krediti stanovniπtvu zabiljeæili meappleugodiπnju 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB I III V VII IX XI 2003 Meappleugodiπnji rast monetarnih agregata Annual growth of monetary aggregates I III V VII IX XI 2004 M0 M1 M2 Rast pojedinih komponenti ukupnih likvidnih sredstava Growth of total liquid assets components I III V VII IX XI 2003 I III V VII IX XI 2004 Gotov novac izvan banaka / Currency outside banks Depozitni novac kod banaka / Demand deposits Kunski πtedni i oroëeni depoziti / Kuna savings and time deposits Devizni depoziti / Foreign currency deposits I III V I III V stopu rasta od 20,8 posto. Dio kredita koji se odnosi na stambene kredite porastao je 26,1 posto. Povoljna kretanja zabiljeæena su i kod kredita poduzeêima Ëiji se rast ubrzao s 10,8 posto u svibnju na 12,5 posto u lipnju, πto je Ëak 6,9 postotnih bodova bræi rast od lipnja 2004. godine. 8 srpanj / July
MONETARY TRENDS Reserve money of Croatian National Bank was at the end of June on the level of 35.530 billion kuna which represents an increase of 2.299 million kuna when compared to May. The highest contribution to such a growth came from increase in bank s deposits with Croatian National Bank which grew by 1.736 million kuna in June, but also from currency outside banks which grew by 626 million kuna. Year on year growth of reserve money amounted to 14 percent in June which represents the highest rate of reserve money growth in the current year. Money M1 increased by 700 million kuna in June and reached the level of 36,735 billion. Such a growth is mostly result of currency outside banks increase which increased by 626 million kuna in the observed period, while other components of money M1, banks deposits and demand deposits, didn t change significantly. The slight change was recorded in the structure of the biggest component of money M1 (demand deposits with banks) where share of households was slightly increased. When the year on year growth of money M1 is observed, it can be seen that it slowed down from 8.6 percent in May to 79.2 percent in June of year. Total liquid assets M4 grew nominally for the second month in a row and after an increase of 2.729 billion kuna in May increased by additional 2 billion kuna in June and reached the level of 142.610 billion kuna. All components of total liquid assets recorded growth except money market instruments which decreased by 79 million kuna. Kuna time and savings deposits with banks increased at the end of June to the level of 25 billion kuna which represents an increase of 531 million kuna when compared to the May. In the same time foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 850 million kuna and reached the level of 79.8 million kuna. When annual growth of total liquid assets is milijarde HRK / billion HRK 35,0 34,5 34,0 33,5 33,0 32,5 32,0 31,5 31,0 30,5 30,0 29,5 29,0 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,0 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB I III V VII IX XI 2003 Kretanje realnog novca Real money developments M1 (lijeva skala / left scale) I III V VII IX XI 2003 M4 (lijeva skala / left scale) I III V VII IX XI 2004 Monetarni multiplikatori Money multipliers I III V M4 (desna skala / right scale) I III V VII IX XI 2004 I III V M1 (desna skala / right scale) 140,0 137,5 135,0 132,5 130,0 127,5 125,0 122,5 120,0 117,5 115,0 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,0 observed, it can be seen that it slightly decelerated from 10.3 percent in May to 10.1 percent in June. An increase of kuna time and savings account deposits in June was mostly influenced by an increase of households deposits (319.3 million kuna) and non banking financial institutions (226.4 million kuna). At the end of June, kuna time and savings account deposits of households amounted to 13.460 billion kuna while kuna time and savings account deposits of non banking financial institutions amounted to 1.877 billion kuna. Kuna deposits of enterprises recorded in June nominal increase in amount of 26 million kuna and were at the end of month on the level of 8.408 billion kuna. When foreign currency time and saving account deposits are observed, it can be seen that highest contribution to increase in June came from household deposits in amount of 875 million kuna. Annual growth of total banks loans accelerated from 19.8 percent in May to 20.5 percent in June of the current year. So high rate of credits growth wasn t recorded since September 2003. The highest contribution to growth came from the sector of households which recorded annual growth of 20.8 percent. The housing loans grew by 26.1 percent. Favorable developments were recorded by credits to enterprises which growth accelerated from 10.8 percent in May to 12.5 percent in June which is 6.9 percentage points higher than in the June of 2004. srpanj / July 9
ME UNARODNI SEKTOR Ukupno stanje inozemnih izravnih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku potkraj 2004. godine bilo je na razini od 10,8 milijardi dolara. Tijekom 2004. godine inozemna izravna ulaganja iznosila su 1,2 milijardu dolara, πto je nominalno smanjenje od 890 milijuna USD ili 41,7 posto u usporedbi s godinom dana ranije. Da bi se πto bolje mogao analizirati trend kretanja inozemnih izravnih ulaganja, potrebno iz analize iskljuëiti velike privatizacijske projekte koji ovise o diskrecijskim odlukama nosioca ekonomske politike. Tijekom 2003. godine izvrπena je privatizacija 25 posto dionica INE Ëime se prihodovalo 505 milijuna USD. Takoappleer je potrebno napomenuti da je u 2003. godini ostvareno poveêanje zbog reinvestirane dobiti na osnovi prijenosa træiπne vrijednosti patenata Plive d.d. Ako se iz analize iskljuëe te dvije transakcije, u 2004. godini izravna strana ulaganja bila su na gotovo istoj razini kao u 2003. godini. Izravna ulaganja u Hrvatsku u prva tri mjeseca. godine iznosila su 220 milijuna USD ili 33,9 posto manje nego u prvom tromjeseëju 2004. godine. Iako je na godiπnjoj razini gotovo udvostruëena vrijednost izravnih vlasniëkih ulaganja, to poveêanje nije bilo dovoljno da poniπti uëinke negativnoga godiπnjeg rasta na osnovi zadræane dobiti i ostalih izravnih ulaganja. Promatra li se struktura prema djelatnostima ukupnog iznosa izravnih inozemnih vlasniëkih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku od 1993. do prvog tromjeseëja. godine, moæe se vidjeti da je najveêi udio zauzimalo novëarsko posredovanje (24,4 posto) i sektor telekomunikacija (14,8 posto). Nakon njih slijede proizvodnja farmaceutskih pripravaka (9,7 posto), proizvodnja naftnih derivata (7,3 posto), vaappleenje sirove nafte i zemnog plina (3,9 posto) te ostale kategorije (39,9 posto). U strukturi ukupno ostvarenih izravnih vlasniëkih ulaganja u Hrvatsku u prva tri mjeseca. godine, tri Ëetvrtine odnosi se na ulaganja u ostalo novëarsko posredovanje. Tijekom spomenutog razdoblja evidentirani su preuzimanje Nove banke d.d. od madæarske Dræavne πtedionice i trgovaëke banke d.d. (OTP banka) te dokapitalizacija dviju poslovnih banaka od njihovih inozemnih vlasnica. Osim ulaganja u ostalo novëarsko posredovanje, u prvom tromjeseëju. godine zabiljeæena su i ulaganja u hotele i motele s restoranima, trgovinu na veliko gorivima i mazivima, vaappleenje sirove nafte i zemnog plina te ostalo osiguranje. Promatra li se struktura ukupnog stanja inozemnih izravnih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku prema zemlji podrijetla, najveêi udio pripada Austriji s 28,1 posto te NjemaËkoj s 14,0 posto. IduÊi po veliëini ulaganja je SAD s 13,6 posto, zatim Maapplearska s 8,9 posto, Italija 6,3 posto te ostale zemlje s 29,1 posto. Od ostalih komponenti financijskog raëuna bilance plaêanja, neto portfeljna ulaganja u prvom su tromjeseëju. godine zabiljeæila negativnu vrijednost od -482,3 milijuna dolara. Takvo kretanje rezultat je smanjenja obveza u iznosu -515 milijuna dolara te poveêanja sredstava od 33 milijuna dolara. Na smanjenje obveza prema portfeljnim ulaganjima u prvom tromjeseëju najviπe je utjecala dræava Ëije su se obveze na temelju izdanih obveznica smanjile za -653 milijuna dolara. Kod kategorije ostalih ulaganja zabiljeæen je priljev sredstava u iznosu od milijuni USD / million USD 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 Izvor: HNB Source: CNB milijuni USD / million USD 0 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Izvor: HNB, MFIN Source: CNB, MIN. FIN. Kretanje izravnih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku Developments of direct investments in the Republic of Croatia 1993. 1994. 1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. Ukupna izravna ulaganja u Hrvatsku / Total direct investments Izravna ulaganja bez velikih privatizacijskih projekata / Direct investments excluding bigger privatisation projects Kretanje izravnih ulaganja u Republiku Hrvatsku Developments of direct investments in the Republic of Croatia I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I 1993. 1994. 1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004.. Ukupna izravna ulaganja / Total direct investments Izravna ulaganja bez velikih privatizacijskih projekata / Direct investments excluding bigger privatisation projects 2,2 milijarde dolara. Takvo kretanje u najveêem je dijelu rezultat priljeva na osnovi gotovine i depozita banaka na strani sredstava u iznosu od 1,3 milijarde dolara te priljeva na osnovi poveêanja obveza u kategoriji kredita banaka u iznosu od 430 milijuna dolara. 10 srpanj / July
INTERNATIONAL SECTOR The total stock of foreign direct investments in Croatia at the end of year 2004 reached the level of 10.8 billion dollars. During the year 2004 direct investments amounted to 1.2 billion dollars which represents nominal decrease of 890 million USD or 41.7 percent when compared to the year before. In order to assess trend in foreign direct investments better, the bigger privatization project which depend on discretionary decisions of policy makers should be excluded from analyzes. In the year 2003 twenty five percent of Croatian oil and gas company was sold for 505 million dollars. It is also important to notice an increase in reinvested profit of Pliva d.d. (to the greatest extent earned on the basis of patents market value transfer to its related company abroad). When those two transaction are excluded from analyzes, foreign direct investments were almost on the same level as year before. Direct investments in Croatia in the first three months of year amounted to 220 million dollars or 33.9 percent less than in the first quarter of the year 2004. Although on the year level foreign direct equity investments were almost doubled, that wasn t enough to cancel impact of negative yearly growth on the basis of reinvested profit and other direct investments. When the structure of foreign direct investments in Croatia by industrial branches for the period 1993 to the first quarter is observed, it can be seen that the highest share was taken by monetary intermediation (24.4 percent) and telecommunications (14.8 percent). They are followed by manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations (9.7 percent), manufacture of refined petroleum products (7.3 percent), extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (3.9 percent) and other categories (39.9 percent). In the structure of totally generated foreign direct equity investments in the first quarter, 75 percent is concerned with monetary intermediation. In the observed period, Nova banka d.d. was Izvor: HNB Source: CNB Izvor: DZS Source: CBS Inozemna izravna vlasniëka ulaganja u RH prema djelatnostima Foreign direct equity investments in Croatia by activities Ostalo Others: 39,9% Sirova nafta i zemni plin Crude petroleum and natural gas: 3,9% Ostalo Others: 29,1% Italija Italy: 6,2% I 1993. - I. Naftni derivati Refined petroleum products: 7,3% NovËarsko posredovanje Financial intermediation: 24,4% Telekomunikacije Telecommunications: 14,8% Farmaceutski pripravci Pharmaceutical preparations: 9,7% Inozemna izravna ulaganja u RH prema zemljama Foreign direct investments in Croatia by countries I 1993. - I. Maapplearska Hungary: 8,9% SAD USA: 13,6% Austrija Austria: 28,1% NjemaËka Germany: 14,0% taken over by Hungarian OTP Bank and two commercial banks were recapitalized by their own owners. Except the investments in monetary intermediation, in the first quarter were also recorded investments in hotels and motels with restaurant, wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and non-life insurance. When the structure of foreign direct investments stock in Croatia by country of origin is observed, the highest shares are taken by Austria (28.1 percent) and Germany (14.0 percent). They are followed by USA (13.6 percent), Hungary (8.9 percent), Italy (6.3 percent) and other countries (29.1 percent). Among other components of balance of payment financial account, net portfolio investments recorded in the first quarter negative value of 482.3 million dollars. That is a result of decrease in liabilities in amount of -515 million dollars and increase in assets of 33 million dollars. The decrease in liabilities of portfolio investments in the first quarter was mainly influenced by government which liabilities on the basis of issued bonds decreased by -653 million dollars. In category of other investments outflow of fund in amount 2.2 billion dollars was recorded. Such a developments are mainly result of increase in assets on currency and deposit basis in amount of 1.3 billion dollars and increase in liabilities of bank credits in amount 430 million dollars. srpanj / July 11
DRÆAVNI PRORA»UN Prihodi U prvom polugodiπtu ove godine dræavni proraëun prikupio je 39,607 milijardi kuna ili 7,2% viπe nego u istom razdoblju prethodne godine. U odnosu na planirane prihode na razini godine, takvo ostvarenje Ëini 45,9%. Porezni prihodi, koji u ukupnim prihodima dræavnog proraëuna sudjeluju s 58,9%, ostvareni su u iznosu od 23,326 milijardi kuna (godiπnji rast od 6,3%). Tomu su najznaëajniji doprinos dali prihodi od poreza na dodanu vrijednost, koji uz socijalne doprinose Ëine najznaëajnije proraëunske prihode. S udjelom od 36,7% u ukupno ostvarenim prihodima dræavnog proraëuna, prihodi od poreza na dodanu vrijednost porasli su 4,8% na godiπnjoj razini. Drugim rijeëima, prikupljeni su u apsolutnom iznosu od 14,517 milijardi kuna, πto Ëini 44,3% u odnosu na proraëunom planirani godiπnji iznos. Nakon usporenog rasta ovih prihoda zabiljeæenog u prvom tromjeseëju, takvo kretanje moæe se pripisati oporavku ekonomske aktivnosti, posebno trgovine na malo u drugom tromjeseëju ove godine. Socijalni doprinosi, na koje se odnosi 38,3% ukupnih prihoda, porasli su u prvom polugodiπtu 6,4% u usporedbi s prethodnom godinom. U apsolutnom iznosu, ostvareni su u iznosu od 15,169 milijardi kuna, πto je 46,9% planiranog iznosa. Rast pokazuje jasnu korelaciju s kretanjem gospodarstva, odnosno s porastom zaposlenosti i plaêa. U strukturi socijalnih doprinosa, najveêi dio odnosi se na doprinose poslodavaca prikupljene u iznosu od 8,070 milijardi kuna (godiπnji rast od 6,4%), te doprinose zaposlenika u iznosu 6,738 milijardi kuna (godiπnji rast od 5,4%), dok se preostalih 361,5 milijuna kuna odnosi na doprinose od samozaposlenih ili nezaposlenih (godiπnji rast od 25,9%). Prihodi od troπarina na godiπnjoj su razini rasli neπto sporije (2,6%), na πto je utjecaj imala i usporena gospodarska aktivnost poëetkom godine. Prikupljeni su u iznosu od 3,693 milijardi kuna, πto je ostvarenje od 41,5% planiranog iznosa. PromatrajuÊi strukturu troπarina, najveêi rast ostvarile su troπarine na osobne automobile (19,6%), kavu (17,7%) i bezalkoholna piêa (12,3%). S obzirom na to da troπarine na naftne derivate imaju udio od 40,5% u ukupno prikupljenim troπarinama, razumljiv je i njihov najznaëajniji utjecaj na kretanje ukupno prikupljenih troπarina. Naime, zabiljeæeni su u iznosu od 1,497 milijardi kuna (meappleugodiπnje smanjenje od 1,9%), πto je 40,7% plana za. godinu. Istodobno, prihodi od troπarina na duhan i duhanske preraappleevine, na koje se odnosi 30,4% ukupnih troπarina, ostvareni su u iznosu od 1,123 milijardi kuna, πto je u usporedbi s istim razdobljem prethodne godine poveêanje od 3,4%. S druge strane, meappleugodiπnja smanjenja zabiljeæile su troπarine na luksuzne proizvode (6,0%), alkohol (4,1%) i pivo (3,9%). Porezom na dohodak prikupljeno je 1,342 milijardi kuna ili 40,4% planiranoga godiπnjeg iznosa. Istodobno, na godiπnjoj razini, zabiljeæili su smanjenje od 0,6%, πto se moæe pripisati dinamici povrata ovog poreza po konaënim prijavama graappleana za 2004. godinu. Prihodi po osnovi poreza na dobit rasli su godiπnjom stopom od Ëak 33,7% tj. prikupljeni su u iznosu od 2,294 milijardi kuna (65,8% u odnosu na plan za. godinu). Pozitivne uëinke na takvo kretanje prihoda od poreza na dobit imala su dobra poslovanja poduzeêa u 2004. godini. U strukturi poreznih prihoda valja spomenuti i prihode od poreza na imovinu, koji se u potpunosti odnose na prihode od poreza na promet nekretnina. Prikupljeni su u iznosu od 172,8 milijuna kuna, πto je 0,8% viπe nego u istom razdoblju prethodne godine. Usporedimo li s planom, takvo ostvarenje Ëini 44,6%. Prihodi po osnovi poreza na meappleunarodnu trgovinu i transakcije zabiljeæili su godiπnje smanjenje 0,7% ili iznos od 735,7 milijuna kuna. Time su ostvareni na razini od 48,2% plana za ovu godinu. (mil. HRK) (mil. HRK) (mil. HRK) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 650 500 350 200 50 2.700 2.500 2.300 2.100 1.900 1.700 1.500 Porez na dohodak (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Taxes on individual income (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Porez na dobit (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Corporate income tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Porez na dodanu vrijednost (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Value added tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle I IV mjesec/godina month/year I IV mjesec/godina month/year I IV mjesec/godina month/year Ostalim porezima prikupljeno je 166,8 milijuna kuna (4,1% viπe na godiπnjoj razini), πto Ëini 42,8% planiranoga godiπnjeg iznosa. Ostali prihodi, na koje se odnosi 2,8% ukupnih prihoda proraëuna, ostvareni su u iznosu od 1,098 milijardi kuna, πto Ëini godiπnji rast od Ëak 50,3% te istodobno ostvarenje od 46,3% planiranog iznosa na razini godine. Takvom kretanju najznaëajniji doprinos dali su prihodi od imovine, koji su u usporedbi s prethodnom godinom rasli Ëak 105,3%. Dakle, prikupljeni su u iznosu od 416,5 milijuna kuna od Ëega se Ëak 75,2% odnosi na prihode od zakupnina, 19,4% na dividende te preostalih 5,3% na kamate. U strukturi ostalih prihoda istiëu se i prihodi od prodaje robe i usluga prikupljeni u iznosu od 370,1 milijuna kuna (godiπnji rast od 18,6%), πto je rezultat prihoda od administrativnih taksi (udio od 50,4%) te prihoda od sluëajne prodaje na træiπtu (udio od 49,6%). Naknade, kazne i globe zabiljeæene su u iznosu od 173,6 milijuna kuna (godiπnji rast od 16,0%), a razni i neprepoznati prihodi u iznosu od 136,3 milijuna kuna (godiπnji rast od 107,7%). Rashodi U prvom polugodiπtu ove godine na razini dræavnog proraëuna utroπeno je 43,970 milijardi kuna, πto je 7,3% viπe nego u istom razdoblju prethodne godine. U odnosu na planirani iznos, takvo izvrπenje Ëini 50,4%. 12 srpanj / July
BUDGETARY CENTRAL GOVERNMENT Revenue In the first six months of, the Budgetary Central Government collected HRK 39,607 million or 7.2% more than in the same period of 2004. This represents 45.9% of total budgetary revenues planned for the year. Tax revenues, which make up to 58.9% of total revenue, amounted to HRK 23,326 million with an annual growth of 6.3%. The largest contribution to growth has come from value-added-tax revenues, which, along with social contributions, represent the most important revenue category of the budget. With a share of 36.7% in total revenues, value-added-tax revenues have recorded an annual growth of 4.8% in June. They amounted to HRK 14,517 million which represents 44.3% of the annual plan. Compared to the first quarter of, when revenues from value-added tax grew at a slower pace, the recent developments can be attributed to a recovery in economic activity, particularly concerning retail trade in the second quarter of. Social contributions, which make up to 38.3% of total revenues, grew by 6.4% in June compared to the same period previous year. They amounted to HRK 15,169 million making up to 46.9% of the planned amount for. The recorded growth shows a clear correlation with the developments in the economy, in particular with the growth of employment and wages. Within the structure of social contributions recorded in June, the largest part referred to employersí contributions amounting to HRK 8,070 million (annual growth of 6.4%) and contributions of employees, which amounted to HRK 6,738 million (annual growth of 5.4%), while the remaining HRK 361.5 million accounts for the contributions of self-employed and unemployed persons, which recorded an annual growth of 25.9%. Revenues from excise taxes have recorded a slower annual growth (2.6%) that can be attributed to the slowdown of economic activity during the first few months of the year. They amounted to HRK 3,693 million that represents 41.5% of the planned amount. Within the structure of excise taxes, the highest growth was recorded by excises on personal cars (19.6%), coffee (17.7%) and non-alcoholic beverages (12.3%). Excises on oil derivatives made 40.5% of total excise-tax revenues having the strongest influence on the overall developments of excise-tax revenues. They amounted to HRK 1,497 million (annual growth of 1.9%), which represents 40.7% of the planned amount. Revenues from excise taxes on tobacco and tobacco products, which made 30.4% of (mil. HRK) (mil. HRK) 800 700 600 500 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Troπarine (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Excise tax (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle Carina i carinske pristojbe (stalne cijene, prosjek 2001=100) Customs duties (constant prices, average 2001=100) I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X I IV VII X 2001 2002 2003 2004 Izvorne vrijednosti / Basic values Trend - ciklus / Trend - cycle I IV mjesec/godina month/year I IV mjesec/godina month/year total excise-tax revenues, amounted to HRK 1,123 million recording a growth of 3.4% compared to the same period previous year. On the other hand, revenues from excise taxes on luxury products, alcohol and beer decreased by 6.0%, 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. Income tax revenues were realized at a level of HRK 1,342 million, i.e. 40.4% of the planned annual amount. In the same time, income tax revenues have recorded a 0.6% decrease compared to the same period previous year that can be attributed to the faster pace of income tax return according final tax notifications for 2004. Revenues collected by profit tax have grown by impressive 33.7% and amounted to HRK 2,294 million. Compared to the annual plan, these tax revenues were realized at a level of 65.8%. Since the profit tax is levied upon the business performance of the previous year, such developments are a consequence of good business results achieved by corporations in 2004. Revenues from property tax, which are completely made up of revenues from taxes on real estate transactions, were collected in the amount of HRK 172.8 million recording an annual increase of 0.8%. Compared to the plan, this amount was equal to 44.6%. Revenues from tax on international trade amounted to HRK 735.7 million which is equal to 48.2% of the planned amount. Compared to the same period of 2004 these revenues recorded a decrease of 0.7%. Revenues from other taxes were collected in the amount of HRK 166.8 million (an annual increase of 4.1%), which represents 42.8% of the plan. Other revenues, which made 2.8% of total revenues, recorded the amount of HRK 1,098 million which accounts for 46.3% of the amount planned for the year and represents an annual growth of 50.3%. The strongest contribution to such developments came from property revenues that grew by 105.3%. Property revenues amounted to HRK 416.5 million from which 75.2% refers to revenues from rent, 19.4 to dividends and the remaining 5.3 to interest revenues. Revenues from sales of goods and services amounted to HRK 370.1 million (18.6% annual growth) resulting from administrative fee revenues (50.4% share) and revenues from incidental sales by non-market establishments (49.6% share). Fines, penalties and forfeits amounted to HRK 173.6 million (16% annual increase), while in the same time miscellaneous and unidentified revenue amounted to HRK 136.3 million (107.7% annual increase). Expense Total expense of the Budgetary Central Government in the first six months of the current year amounted to HRK 43,970 million which represents an increase of 7.3% compared to the same period previous year and a realization of 42.5% of the amount planned for the year. The largest share (47.1%) of total expense refers to social benefits amounting to HRK 20,712 million. They recorded an annual growth of 6.7% and were realized at the level of 50.6% of the planned amount for. Among social benefits, the largest amount of HRK 14,748 million was spent for social security benefits representing a share of 71.1% in the total expense for social benefits. Within their structure, the largest categories relate to expenses for old age pensions, pensions for disabled persons and family pensions, followed by sick leave allowances, expenses for unemployment, maternity leave allowances and pensions abroad. Social assistance benefits, which account for 28.2% of social benefits, were realized in the amount of HRK 5,848 million or 6.2% more than in same period 2004. The largest share of these expenses refers to pensions for disabled persons and family pensions, pension supplement of HRK 100 +6%, child allowance, permanent rights (individual and family disability benefits) as well as to expenses for additional maternity leave and baby equipment. The remaining 0.6% of social benefits refers to employees social benefits that amounted to HRK 115.7 million and recorded an annual decrease of 44.0%. srpanj / July 13